Humans have always panicked about technology. You see the same echos in the arguments from the printing press to now. Yet humans have always, and amazingly, adapted. Almost zero jobs remain today as they existed just 100 years ago and we are better for that.
Really enjoyed this. The cancer-as-GDP argument is one of those points that's obvious once someone says it and invisible until they do.
Where it gets tricky though: the whole model lives in the digital economy. The procurement manager's $3,400 startup works because software has near-zero marginal cost. But when you need robots, factories, supply chains, the barrier drops from $3M to maybe $300K, not $3,400. Still transformative, but way slower. The deflationary loop transmits fast in digital, slow in physical. The Intelligence Renaissance might arrive on very different timelines depending on which side of the atoms-vs-bits line you're on.
Also, love the "Intelligence Renaissance" framing. Beats the doom narratives by a mile.
Hey Hugo, I’m glad you enjoyed the article. I think GDP is a very flawed measurement, particularly in the age of AI. I’m glad the cancer example hit that home.
I think there are still gaps that need to be filled in, like you mentioned, this exists in the digital economy. But so do most of the replaced jobs.
I have similar thoughts for some of the manual labor jobs in the age lf humanoid robots.
My real concerns are further out when the intelligence disconnect because vastly different between humans and machines.
Humans have always panicked about technology. You see the same echos in the arguments from the printing press to now. Yet humans have always, and amazingly, adapted. Almost zero jobs remain today as they existed just 100 years ago and we are better for that.
To maximize employment, all digging with shovels will be replaced with spoons.
Really enjoyed this. The cancer-as-GDP argument is one of those points that's obvious once someone says it and invisible until they do.
Where it gets tricky though: the whole model lives in the digital economy. The procurement manager's $3,400 startup works because software has near-zero marginal cost. But when you need robots, factories, supply chains, the barrier drops from $3M to maybe $300K, not $3,400. Still transformative, but way slower. The deflationary loop transmits fast in digital, slow in physical. The Intelligence Renaissance might arrive on very different timelines depending on which side of the atoms-vs-bits line you're on.
Also, love the "Intelligence Renaissance" framing. Beats the doom narratives by a mile.
Hey Hugo, I’m glad you enjoyed the article. I think GDP is a very flawed measurement, particularly in the age of AI. I’m glad the cancer example hit that home.
I think there are still gaps that need to be filled in, like you mentioned, this exists in the digital economy. But so do most of the replaced jobs.
I have similar thoughts for some of the manual labor jobs in the age lf humanoid robots.
My real concerns are further out when the intelligence disconnect because vastly different between humans and machines.
I enjoyed the positive spin!
Let’s look for the opportunities !