Really interesting experiment! The issue with the keys (as Lichtman interprets them) is examining objective measures of economic health like GDP rather than economic sentiment. If people are unable to buy groceries or make car payments, they are more likely to vote for change—even if that change might result in an even worse economic climate.
I'm glad you enjoyed the experiment, Nita! The interpretation of Lichtman's keys is, without a doubt, the most fascinating part. It’s incredible how politics, without invoking 'TDS', can disrupt the thinking of even the brightest minds. According to his keys, Trump is neither Charismatic nor are there any significant economic issues—a perspective that seems purely wishful. Economic metrics like CPI may have had meaning when Lichtman was younger, but now, many see these figures as little more than propaganda. No amount of gaslighting can make people believe that the rising prices are all in their heads. Jeff Bezos once said something along the lines of, "If your KPIs conflict with customer feedback, assume the problem lies with the KPIs, not the customers."
I watched Lichtman's post-election livestream, and he still insists that his interpretation of the keys this year was accurate. Like you mentioned, outside the bubble of ivory tower academia, Trump is indeed considered charismatic. One needn't be eloquent to have charisma. That Bezos quote reminds me of one from Feynman:
“It doesn't make a difference how beautiful your guess is. It doesn't make a difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it's wrong.”
It’s interesting to find the prediction power of these tools. Maybe even more curious is how Alan Lichtman, the developer of the keys, failed to predict the election. If ChatGPT and other LLMs are trained off our collective consciousness in the form of digital archives, perhaps, they more accurately understand average sentiment for each key. Not overly weighted by a single individual bias.
Really interesting experiment! The issue with the keys (as Lichtman interprets them) is examining objective measures of economic health like GDP rather than economic sentiment. If people are unable to buy groceries or make car payments, they are more likely to vote for change—even if that change might result in an even worse economic climate.
I'm glad you enjoyed the experiment, Nita! The interpretation of Lichtman's keys is, without a doubt, the most fascinating part. It’s incredible how politics, without invoking 'TDS', can disrupt the thinking of even the brightest minds. According to his keys, Trump is neither Charismatic nor are there any significant economic issues—a perspective that seems purely wishful. Economic metrics like CPI may have had meaning when Lichtman was younger, but now, many see these figures as little more than propaganda. No amount of gaslighting can make people believe that the rising prices are all in their heads. Jeff Bezos once said something along the lines of, "If your KPIs conflict with customer feedback, assume the problem lies with the KPIs, not the customers."
I watched Lichtman's post-election livestream, and he still insists that his interpretation of the keys this year was accurate. Like you mentioned, outside the bubble of ivory tower academia, Trump is indeed considered charismatic. One needn't be eloquent to have charisma. That Bezos quote reminds me of one from Feynman:
“It doesn't make a difference how beautiful your guess is. It doesn't make a difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it's wrong.”
Sadly/disastrously, it seems ChatGPT got it right! :-\
It’s interesting to find the prediction power of these tools. Maybe even more curious is how Alan Lichtman, the developer of the keys, failed to predict the election. If ChatGPT and other LLMs are trained off our collective consciousness in the form of digital archives, perhaps, they more accurately understand average sentiment for each key. Not overly weighted by a single individual bias.
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